Is the importance of Blu-Ray overstated?

[bdbdbd]

MikeB said:

@ Noname2200

Strategy Analytics connected Home Devices service (via CNN) predicts 44% of US households will have Blu-Ray by 2012. 132 million homes worldwide, so about 6 years after introduction.

VHS took 15 years to reach a 100 million units counting from the first VCR recorders being introduced in the united states. Note this figure is VCRs sold which accounts for fewer households as some households will own more than one VCR.

For DVD the 100 million worldwide household figure was reached by the last quarter of 2003. First DVD players hit the market in December 1996 in Japan and March 1997. So after about 6 and a half years.

So, USA would make 1/3 from total sales by 2012? I'd call it bad penetration.
Considering how big the HDTV adoption rate would be by then, i think it's pretty bad. Besides, in order to compete DD i'd say that BD would need at least triple adoption rate by 2012. BD most propably is going to win the HD market in the short term, but that's just about it. Long term we have increasing internet speeds and HVD around the corner.