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I thought the marketing for Mario Kart 8 was mediocre. It sold because it's freaking Mario Kart (and came with a free game on top of that), but the TV ads for MK8 were lame. I saw the commercial for Mario Kart like maybe once or twice? I saw more commercials for Sunset Overdrive, the ads for MK8 were poor. 

The OP is right probably in the sense that Splatoon isn't going to be some huge hit. I don't agree that it should be a $20 DLC title though.

In general cartoony games that aren't based on a well established kids or Nintendo mascot brand aren't doing so hot right now anyway. So Splatoon has an uphill climb. Also the Wii U userbase is so small and so abysmally terrible at supporting anything that doesn't have Mario or Link on the box. If it ain't LEGO, Mario, or Minecraft ... good luck as a cartoony IP on home console.