Is the importance of Blu-Ray overstated?

[jalsonmi]

This is an opinion post, but it's based on a good deal of knowledge so bear with me.

First off, let me say this has nothing to do with Blu-Ray's advantages in the video game market. In the immediate future the ability to store so much information on a disc is a huge boon for a game, and in my opinion is the main thing the PS3 has going for it (but I'm not a huge graphics guy. So the ability to have a massive immersive world with hours and hours of game play and tons of details throughout the game in terms of story and said gameplay is much more important for me). However, when it comes to the supposed advantage the PS3 will have as a movie player and the way it will boost the console going forward, well...

I'm a grad student at USC Film School. Among the many things such an education gives you, one thing you have a lot of access to is guest speakers in classes who are deeply involved in the industry. I've heard guests ranging from the former head of Paramount to the current head of the Sci Fi Chanel to the director Jason Reitman to countless experts on new media. Many of them have talked about the sea change that is going on now--the way distribution is being completely revolutionized and the imminent death of DVDs as the primary non-theater method of distribution. This last issue is borne out through the fact that after years of an explosion in DVD sales via it's packaging as a prestige item--full of special features and booklets with articles--and via it's use as an ideal manner to package television shows old and new for the consumer, DVDs sales have stagnated for the past couple of years, and are actually starting to decline. DVD is dying. However, Blu-Ray never enters the discussion.

In the eyes of many in the film industry and many who watch that industry, the DVD is going the way of the CD (an industry even more in freefall than DVD is). It's killer is the exact same one as CDs, as well: the internet. According to many in the industry (again, I'm speaking of live interviews with these people, so I can't provide a link. In addition, some of the speakers have a lot riding on DVD--this is not the type of information they would give out publicly, hence my unwillingness to name some of their names) Very shortly, the primary way people will buy and consume movies is via download. The explosion of this as method of distribution can already be seen taking effect. Youtube, for one. iTunes for another. Hell, not just iTunes, but the iPhone and cell phones as a whole. In addition, networks make a good deal of money by now allowing you watch episodes of TV online (in a proprietary viewing system where you can't fast forward past commercials). Netflix, staying on the cutting edge, recently added a download feature where you can watch movies immediately, or download them to your DVR.

So where does this leave Blu-Ray? For all the hubbub around the format wars, a dirty little secret of Blu-Ray is that despite winning it's growing at a much, much smaller rate than digital distribution is. Some might say there's image quality to take into account, but again we can look to CDs. The public has more than proven that they much prefer the ease of use, price and low storage requirements of MP3s over the superior audio quality as CD afford. Audio DVDs certainly failed to change this tide. Ironically, audio DVDs first popped up at the start of the MP3 revolution, just as Blu-Ray is popping up just as digital distribution of films is ramping into high gear. In addition, the obvious fact is that there's a cognitive dissonence involved. The video can only get so much better before you run into the barrior that you're still watching the film on a much smaller screen than you're supposed to be and with many fewer speakers. For those that want the true top quality film watching experience, the answer is, of course, the movie theater. Blu-Ray is most likely going to suffer the same fate as audio DVDs--it's going to be the last, dying vestige of the old system model of post-theater distribution that will not be able to fight off the entirely new, revolutionary model exploding right next to it.

It is my opinion that Blu-Ray as a medium to watch movies will not be a major factor for the PS3. It's only a small factor right now, as Blu-Ray is just begnning to creep into the market as a replacement for DVD. By the time it should be poised to fully take over for DVD (which it certainly hasn't yet--most people still own a DVD player and buy DVDs, not Blu-Ray discs), giving the PS3 the biggest push via it's use as a Blu-Ray player, digital formats and dstribution will have taken over as the true replacement for the DVD. Blu-Ray will remain then, as it is now, a butique item, doing relativietly little for PS3's overall sales performance. Other than, of course, the reason some awesome ass huge ass games can be made.

Thoughts?