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I think this will be overshadowed by the GTA IV launch of both consoles.

But if it's only going to rose fifty percent this year, why would it rise 100 percent this year?

I think Wii HW will be:

Japan - 65k
America - 200k
Others - 170k

I don't think the Wii stock this week will be that huge, it just had a really good week this week, but it could be big, if Ninty finally got their act together.

Others: Are we even tracking Korea?

Japan: Golden week will rise sales, but it won't rise like crazy, 100 percent.

I also think that GTAIV will overshadow Wii Fit in Others, and MK Wii in America, as I'm sure the pre-orders for those two games don't come near the 4 million or so (In america, per ioi) that GTAIV has among both consoles, not counting "others".