BREXIT could cost the UK €300 billion

[Scoobes]

MikeRox said:

Scoobes said:

AnthonyW86 said:
So the UK's economy would be 0.6% smaller by 2030 but cancelling the budget paymants alone would already save them 0.5% gdp right from the start? And that's just one saving. Sound like a great deal to me if you get all your souverinity back. And other country's would be cheaper off they say?

You realise a healthy economy is supposed to have its GDP increase over time, right? This would be a contraction at worst or stagnation at best. Either would be bad.

For comparison, the UK GDP has increased by over 70% since 2000-2013 (according to Google).

It is also however a prediction based on the assumption that we wouldn't be able to take any alternative approaches with the new found freedom and ability to negotiate our own trade deals with other countries. It's very arbitary to have these studies because what is completely unknown, is trying to be tied down to someones set visions of what would happen.

The truth is, if the UK left the EU, no one has a clue what would happen. Of course the active line at the moment is if the UK leaves, they won't be able to sell to the EU countries as easily and will be heavily penalised hurting the economy. However, we purchase more from the EU than we sell, so arbitary trade cock blocking would actually hurt EU member states more than the UK. So ultimately, although that's the line, would that be the case?

Monday will be an interesting test. Greece has refused to meet the bailout requirements, will the EU let them slide out on Monday when they can no longer service their debts? Or will there be a miracle breakthrough this weekend? So far it's all be calling each other's bluffs because they don't want to set the precedent incase other countries (i.e. Spain, Portugal, Italy) etc all start getting the same idea. But are they willing to risk the stability?

We don't know, nobody knows, both UKIP saying we'd be much better off out of the EU making our own choices and setting our own terms, and the scaremongering from the Lib Dems, Labour etc about 3 million lost jobs, loss of investment etc are all pure guesswork at best and outright lies at worst.

The referendum is the logical way of putting the matter to bed one way or another. I'd rather have 2 years of "instability" from that with a firm answer at the end. Than yet more long decades of rowing bitching and moaning and political parties being torn apart and accused of being racist and allowed to stir up immigration and racial tensions.

It's educated guesswork though. Medium to large employers are less likely to setup bases in the UK (and more likely to move) if we leave for the simple reason it becomes harder to break through to the EU market, and other countries will give easier access (and in a few cases, better productivity). The idea that we'll have a better time of it negotiating from outside the EU is a joke at best considering the EU is the largest economic block in the world and therefore has a much stronger position at the negotiating table when it's all said and done.

In my own field in the sciences, leaving the EU makes it a lot harder to collaborate on major projects around Europe (scientific collaboration and subsequent output is less in non-EU countries, the UK currently punches well above its weight). This puts the UK at a major disadvantage in global sciences which has a knock on effect on the economy (for every £1 of investment in R&D, the economy benefits by £3 in 5 years due to the startup companies/industrial breakthroughs that form).

Even so, it might not be as bad as this study paints, but making a educated guess based on a full analysis of data is far better than the crappy sound bites the politicians try to ram down our throats.