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So to clear up a few things.

These numbers are shipped to retailers.

VGC numbers are sold to consumers.

Software numbers are shipped plus digital sales.  Bundles as well.

Nintendo rounds their shipment numbers to the nearest ten thousand.

Anyway, the Wii U is likely over 250k overtracked based on the amount of stock we know is on shelves in Japan.  The 3DS is pretty heavily overtracked as well.  This seems to happen just about every quarter.