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Mummelmann on 06 May 2015
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yvanjean said:
Mummelmann said:
I think this one is fairly obvious, at least to me; Xenoblade will sell more, more marketable, traditional and with a bigger potential audience following since the last release which sold decently.
I just don't see a proper market for Splatoon, it could end up as a slightly more popular shooter version of W101.


I would disaggree... Xenoblade is a RPG and doesn't cater to the younger casual market. Splatoon has a much bigger potential audience. I think Splatton will outsell Xenoblade by at least a 3-1 ratio.


The "young casual market" aren't really playing home consoles any longer, so that won't do Splatoon any good. Most RPG's don't cater to the younger casual market, doesn't stop many of them to pull of decent sales. This is probably the least important audience group of them all for RPG's.

I think people are mistaken if they believe that a "unique online shooter" is what the market wants; sales of major franchises shows that this is more or less directly the opposite of reality, mainstream annual twitch-fests are the order of the day. I fear that Nintendo have forgotten that the vast majority of the Wii audience are long gone and aren't coming back, this game is quite clearly aimed at children and youth, but the core Nintendo owner is an adult (Nintendo console owners have the highest average age out of the big three) and kids have their faces glued to phones and tablets.

I honestly don't see a big market for Splatoon, that would not have changed had it released on other platforms either. Splatoon's proverbial potential audience is gaming on mobile devices and I'll be downright shocked if this title sells three times more than Xenoblade.
I maintain that Xenoblade will sell the most; JRPG's have proven audiences and this is a sequel to a game that did fairly well on the Wii, releasing on a platform that has been screaming for a good JRPG since launch, there is no proven audience for a title like Splatoon.
I'm with gergroy on this, and I think I've made the comparison before; W101 is a more realistic target for Splatoon to beat, people talking 2-3 million are being plain ludicrous, there are currently six 2 million seller on the Wii U and five of them are Mario games... (and the sixth has Mario in it as well, but isn't a main Mario title) And there are currently nine million sellers, none of them are not in remotely the same category as Splatoon.

If Splatoon manages more than 500k lifetime; it should be celebrated as a success for what it is, only about 20 of the 320 titles available on Wii U have managed to cross this line.

Xenoblade should be able to cross the 500k mark with a decent margin, even Bayonetta 2 is probably over 400k (grossly overtracked on here), with the prequel being on two entirely different platforms. No, I remain convinced that Xenoblade will sell more, I also fully believe that it will be the better title of the two.