What is a realistic best case scenario for the Wii/PS3/360?

[Bodhesatva]

ckmlb said:
What's with people predicting 200 million sales for Wii?

That's not happening.

Predicting something as likely and saying "it's possible" are different things :p

Really, all of us giving high numbers are echoing the same chorus: we don't know how expanded this expanded market is. Before the playstation, games sold largely to 5-15 year olds; after, they sold to 15-25 year olds as well, which almost precisely follows the system sales increasing to twice their previous size.

Now, games are selling to 35 year olds, 45 year olds, 55 year olds... I've even seen a lot of elderly people come in and buy the console. It's difficult to tell precisely what percentage of such people are actually purchasing the thing from anecdotal evidence, but that sort of thing really is happening.

So what happens if the audience for video games doubles again? The Wii is clearly the benefactor of most of that expansion.