PS3 15 mil - If the sales don't pick up soon 3rd party developers will get very scared. However if the price is dropped siginficantly and some major games come out it has a very high potential of 60-80 mil. I was going to go lower but i think with price drops Bluray will positively affect sales
Xbox 360 30 mil - $199/$299 price range will make this a viable second place in the worst case scenario. The strengths of Live however keep the mainstream market unimpressed because they are just not into online gaming and Hardcore esoteric Live Arcade Games. The High end for 360 is much closer to the low end, though new models boost this in later years with lower price tags (40-50 mil)
Wii 40 mil - If the wii loses momentum this will have very little effect. Kids are usually slower to adapt to trends in Gaming Hardware (Unlike the adult ipods). Third parties are belatedly flocking to wii, and long development cycles mean we won't see the results until early 2008 as games hit testing, just after the 07 holiday when Wii will need a boost. Late in the generation one of two things will happen. Either 3rd party support snowballs Wii into something bigger than any other system ever (130+ mil) or the fad dies down and 40 million wii are already in households.
A side effect, because of the success of the wii, in the worst case a 3 1/2 to 4 year life cycle and the introduction of a Wii Lite or HD with bumped up resolutions but not still not to the level of ps3 and probably not even 360, we will see a longer life cycle for PS3 (if SCE survives three years at less than 5 mil average) and 360.
I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.
