With more and more of the market adopting the PS4, I can see the PS3 numbers trailing off over the course of the next 2 years. Once it's under 1m units a year Sony will pull the plug.
The Wii U will most likely hold steady at 3.5-4m for the next two years, so we're looking at 18m if nothing budges. At that point, Nintendo shouldn't have any problem shoveling off their remaining stock 1-2m at a $149 price point.
With the Wii U, however, I wouldn't underestimate the casual interest in the system that will translate into sales if Nintendo is able to reduce the cost (starting soon and continuing until its life-cycle is over). If it's $249 for the second half of 2015, and then cut to $199 before "Zelda" releases - it's hard to imagine that it wouldn't move more than its sedentary 3.5m annually.
Retro Tech Select - My Youtube channel. Covers throwback consumer electronics with a focus on "vid'ya games."
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