Screen Digest on PS3,Wii,360: We don't know what is going to happen yet

[shams]

TheSource said:

Sulla that prediction you cited would translate like this (assuming a 33 million console market in Japan, a 72 million market for Eur/Others, and a 100 million market for the USA) by 2012:

PS3 - 90 mill

360 - 72.27 mill

Wii - 42.65

...

Yeah, that looks likely - not ;)

Wii will be sitting around 18m by March 08. 360 will be a little behind (if not more), at around 15-16m. And I think Sony will be lucky to have cracked the 10m point by then (very lucky!).

So in the following 4 years, this would have to happen:

PS3 - sells 80m in 4 years (20m/year)

360 - sells 56m in 4 years (14m/year)

Wii - sells 24m in 4 years (6m/year)

...

To put this into context, compared to sales to date:

 - Wii sales would have to drop by 60-75% immediately, after March '08 

 - 360 sales would have to double (currently sold approx 10m in 18months, or 550k/month) 

 - PS3 sales would have to triple (currently sold approx 3.5m in 7 months, or 500k/month) 

...

More significantly, compared to CURRENT sales (last month):

 - PS3 sales would have to jump from approx 180k/month to 1670k/month (i.e. a NINE times increase!)

 - 360 sales would have  to jump from approx 250k/month to 1160k/month (i.e. a 4.5x increase!)

...

I think the numbers speak for themselves...