Why do people say the Ps3 will outsell Xbox360?

[Munkeh111]

masterb8tr said:

gebx said:

masterb8tr said:
If it coninues like these(based on charts from april 5th) the ps3 will catch up in 63 weeks.

186 000/(11.6 *10^6)= 0.015(ps3)

134000/(18.1*10^6)=0.0075(360)

1.015^x*11.6*10^6=1.0075^x*18.1*10^6

(1.015^x)/(1.0075^x)=(18.1*10^6)/(11.6*10^6)

1.0079^x=1.56034

(log 1.56034)/(log 1.0079)=63-64 weeks


In europe 19 weeks:


100 000/5.2mill=.02(ps3)

66 000/6.2mill=.01(360)

5.1mil*1.02^x=6.2*1.01^x

1.02/1.01= 1.0099=1.01^x

6.2/5.1=1.21

log 1.21/log 1.01= 19 weeks

You're using a wrecking ball to hit a nail in a two by four... this is simple math

PS3 is outselling the 360 by 52,000 units/week so it will take 123 weeks for the PS3 to catch up to the 6.4 million consoles its behind... NOT 66

hmm perhaps i did something wrong, been along time since i did this kind of math. I divided weekly sales on total sales to check the increase per week. which was 0.015% that means that total sales for ps3 increase 1.015% each week. Then i used logarithms.

 

However the numbers will be a bit off since the total increase will not be 1.015% each week, but if i conclude that the ps3 will recieve a rather strong sales boost( due to its fans sitting on the ps2 waiting to take the leap into the next generation and the rather strong line up), I think you will se that the numbers might not be so off after all. This is just an estimation made by me and these are just my thoughts on the matter. The 360 might receive a sales boost as well, but the ps3 line up is much stronger.

 I think the souces predictio method was an accurat-ish statistic one. He took the average weekly sales this year, and then looked at the difference between the average weekly sales this and last year, and then worked it out from there, which gives about 12m sales. Of course that does not take into account the extra boost expected from GTA IV, MGS 4 and the other holiday big hitters