Nintendo's true business model

[Ian]

Let's overgeneralize and speculate a bit- To me this article says a lot about Nintendo's intentions for the Wii. For starters I'd say Nintendo's business model, as well as their prior history, indicates they really don't care about making hardcore games for hardcore gamers and never will (I mention this based on another thread where people were discussing this in regards to Retro, this is not in line with their business model, too expensive to produce these types of games when they can make money on Tech demos and new genres-Wii sports, fit, etc). From this I would expect that mature games will stay few and far between on the Wii (at least from Nintendo) and anyone expecting sometihing different just because the Wii has a big install base is in for a let down. Second it says alot about how long Wii might last and where Microsoft and Sony fit into this generation. Nintendo's success puts both Sony and Microsoft in a bit of a holding pattern. Both are doing well servicing the hardcore market but are now forced to push for the casual market with motion based and casual products sooner than later (Sony for example would rather do this later in the life cycle of it's system). However, as the cost of PS3 and 360 systems come down to near Wii levels, and Wii saturation begins to kick in a bit, Wii popularity/profitability will decline. Nintendo will then move on to the next innovation, leaving this market to it's competitors (because competing is less profitable than reinventing for them), Nintendo made Wii software will dry up and they'll most likely have moved on to try the same thing with a new portable. Overall I think the Wii will delay the uptake of hi def systems but in the end will not negatively effect overall sales for these systems. For example, I see a situation in Japan about a year or two from now very similar to what is happening with the PSP were Wii begins to hits saturation and a slimlined PS3 blows up over there. Isn't Random speculation is fun