| Viper1 said: I said most accurate when not accounting for variations such as seasons, price cuts and software, etc... When you take those into account, a much more sophisticated formula certainly comes into play. The problem with Masterb8tr's method is that it continually narrows the sales gap disproportionally to the actual sales. For example: If PS3 outsold X360 by 20k units this week. Chances are that it will outsell X360 by 20k units next week. Masterb8tr's method would have the PS3 outsell the X360 by 21k the next week, then 22k the following week, etc.... A better method, yet still simplified, would be to take an average weekly sales difference for the past several weeks or even months so that shipment fluctuations and software releases trends can be factored into the equation. In fact, I'll work on that tomorrow. I bet you we still come up closer to 123-125 weeks than 66. |
so you did, so you did, must have missed that, was in a hurry to eat luch. then i appologize, when not considering any other constraints, it is the most accurate.
now here's where it gets tricky, it is probable that if the ps3 outsells the 360 by 20k this week that it will again outsell it by 20k next week, but it is also probable that it could outsell it by 21k or 23k or higher and again, it is also probable that it wont outsell the 360 at all.
i'd also work on one too but i work in the merchandising department of a hypermart chain and its my job to make sure that the categories/items that i handle are always on stock at all our stores (7 hypermarts and 22 supermarkets). to be honest, forecasting demand was fun especially when your right at first, but after a while (5 years) it gets old...really old.
