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ils411 on 23 April 2008
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Ail said:
Viper1 said:
tombi123 said:
gebx said:
masterb8tr said:
hmm according to my calculations its 66 weeks not 3 years. As the ps3 has more AAA games this year, its very likely that it will get a boost in sales. I did some calculations based on the vgchartz from april the 5th. So the numbers are a bit off.

So if we estimate the ps3 to sell around 186 000 per week and total sales is 11.6mill

And the 360 to sell around 134 000 and total sales is 18.1

186 000/(11.6 *10^6)= 0.015

134000/(18.1*10^6)=0.0075

1.015^x*11.6*10^6=1.0075^x*18.1*10^6

(1.015^x)/(1.0075^x)=(18.1*10^6)/(11.6*10^6)

1.0079^x=1.56034

(log 1.56034)/(log 1.0079)= ca 63-64 weeks

unless i did some mistakes



WTF? This is simple grade school math... or am I missing something?

186,000/week - PS3

134,000/week - 360

52,000/week - Difference

6,440,000 - LTD difference between PS3 and 360

6,440,000/52,000 per week  = 123 Weeks


 Are you being stupid on purpose? 

What do you mean?   Gebx is correct.

 


He is indeed correct, it's not PhD level maths............

We are week 17.

If you take at face value my saying that the holdays are like an extra 14 regular week in a year ( do the maths for last years, it's pretty close).

That leaves 49 weeks for this year and 66 weeks for 2009.

So by January 1st 2010 the PS3 would be 460k units behind the 360 and would catch it sometime in March 2010.

Some of us are assuming the gap between the 2 will increase slightly in 2009 and it will actually catch up with it at the end of 2009, not such a big stretch....

 

orignal computation is trying to take into consideration the increaseing gap between the ps3 and x360 sales.  "if" trending would continue and sales gap would continue to increase, chances are that it wont take 3 years for the ps3 to catchup to the x360. (emphasis on if)

if we take a look at sales, ps3 and xbox 360 sold almost the same during the first year of their life.

1st year Sales
ConsolePeriodSales
XOBX360Nov 26' 05 - Nov 18 '06    5,569,349
PS3Nov 11' 06 - Nov 3 '07    5,621,406

if sales, continued this way, then there is no way in hell that the ps3 is catching up to the x360, but, this isnt the case. now, lets take a look at the 2nd year sales. and we start seeing a different picture

2nd year Sales
ConsolePeriodSales
XBOX360Nov 25 '06 - Nov 17 '07    7,870,230
PS3Nov 10' 07 - Apr 19 '08    6,294,152

the x360 has sold for a full year and only managed 7.8m while the ps3 on its second year has already sold 6.2m in just 5 months.  now, if we compare same period for both the x360 and the ps3 we see the ps3 outselling the x360 by 0.9m in 24 weeks.

ConsolePeriodSales
XBOX360Nov 10' 07 - Arp 19 '08    5,365,974
PS3Nov 10' 07 - Arp 19 '08    6,294,152
 

so what does this all mean? nothing really, to lazy to actually do my own computations. just saying that "if" trending continues and the ps3 continues to outsell the x360 and is increaseing the sales gap then it is incorrect to say that it will take the ps3 123 weeks to catch up to the 360s install base. (again, emphasis on if)

if you want to do an accurate prediction, we should consider seasonality, game realses, price drops, new features, new modes, etc etc etc.