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At this point I do think PS4 could taper near PS2 sales. It's currently outpacing PS2 and its online functions as a platform will make it an enticing smart box in the long term.

What's more, look ahead in 10 years when X amount of developing countries have more readily available internet access; This will also contribute to legs. The key factor here is whether or not we will see an uber cheap SKU in the next 10 years for PS4 that will give it appeal to 3rd world countries where cost is the do or die factor.
I'm not surprised most people are saying no. But this is the closest to "perfect conditions" in the modern day as it gets, really.