Logically sales usually increase in the 2nd and 3rd years compared to the 1st, those people saying no to PS4 reaching 50M by September 2016 aren't really basing their guesses on any real figures with their comments.
The 1st 13 months of sales PS4 sold 18.5M units, that's an average of about 1.42M a month, over 34 months (November 2013 to September 2016) that would amount to 48.28M units, assuming no rise in demand, just the same sales pace as those early months of sales.
The level of games in the 1st 13 months is much weaker than in the 2nd 13 months or beyond that.
In the least I think a 20% increase is a minimum to expect, which would mean the monthly average going up to 1.704, so 35.784M units sold in 21 months before September 2016, add that to the 18.5M units sold in the 1st 13 months and PS4 will hit 54.28M units by September.
IMO 50M is possible by E3 next year.
PS4 will probably have sold around 38.5 million units by the end of this year, which would leave 11.5M over the 9 months of 2016.
Between the beginning of this year and September 2016 we'll have 1)The Order 1886, 2)Bloodborne, 3)Until Dawn, 4)Tearaway Unfolded, 5)Fat Princess Adventures, 6)Ratchet & Clank, 7)Disgaea 5, 8)Let it Die, 9)Deep Down, 10)Kill Strain, 11)Drawn to Death, 12)WiLD, 13)Rime, 14)Alienation, 15)Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, 16)The Tomorrow Children, 17)Shadow of the Beast and that's just what we know about for 2015.
There's also GT7, Uncharted 4, a new God of War and Without Memory.
GT7 could very well release this year.
More games are definitely going to be announced to release between now and September 2016 than we've already been told about.
Anyone that says there's no reason for PS4 to sell 50M units by even E3 next year really isn't being realistic, because we've had over 20 games, that we know about that will all probably release by then, by September 2016 PS4 will be well on it's way to 55M, it may have even surpassed that goal by the time the Fall of 2016 rolls around.
Baring in mind that Project Morpheus and more than one price cut could have happened by then even 60M is entirely feasible.
Sales so far have been the result of the supposedly weak exclusive line-up, multiplats, the strong Playstation name, good marketing, value for money, indies and the future promise of quality exclusives that Sony always delivers on, not to forget quality hardware.
The promise of games is already being fulfilled with the likes of Bloodborne, Tearaway Unfolded & Ratchet & Clank on the way this year, along with the other exclusives I mentioned above, the value will be strengthened when the price cuts are announced, along with new bundles.
Multiplats will likely be the games that sell most systems and those games coming this year look much better than the ones that released in 2014 and 2013.
A vast sales increase beyond my conservative estimates seems more likely than a decline in sales as the naysayers believe will happen.
