PS3 overtaking the (Dead) 360 Anytime soon? Not really...

[thx1139]

kn said:

thx1139 said:
Continually people overestimate what impact PS3 360 software will have on long term sales. MGS4 Halo 3 may create some boost, but as the poster child of the PS3 360 since E32005 certainly a great deal of people purchased the PS3  360 already that will be purchasing MGS4 Halo 3.

Wait, where have I heard that argument before?

Only problem is Halo 3 was not the poster child. We knew Halo 3 was going to be made/was being made, but MS did not show Halo 3 until when? First thing I remember was the teaser trailer.

Also need to add that Halo is a far more popular title than MGS.  Console install base will be similiar (Halo 3 hit with about 11.5 million 360's sold to consumers and PS3 will be around 12.5 million sold when MGS4 hits).  Some seem to indicate that MGS4 will sell a new PS3 along side each copy.  Some seem to indicate that GT5 will also sell to 100% new PS3 owners and the same for FFXIII.  I think that once those hit a great deal of the consumers for the titles will be existing PS3 owners. Is it safe to say that those 2 titles will have 25% attach rate to existing PS3 owners. I think that the number is low. If they do then that will be about 4 million copies sold. FFXII sold 5 million total. 

Really the further we get into the generation the real thing that will keep the consoles selling is library.  360 is going to keep up with PS3 library wise and probably stay ahead.  This in itself will keep the sales close enough so that the PS3 doesnt catch up until the next gen is upon us and by then it wont matter.