PS3 overtaking the (Dead) 360 Anytime soon? Not really...

[kn]

Ail said:

Problem is you ignored a lot of factors in your analysis like holydays for example.

In terms of sales holydays are like adding a quarter or an extra 14 weeks to a year. Take those into account and already the date you mention has shifted.

Personally I believe the PS3 will overtake the 360 sometime in 2009, most likely Fall or Holydays 2009.

 

 I'm afraid I'm not following you.  First you imply that the holiday period is like an extra 14 weeks in the year.  If I take those into account then the 800K sales differential between the PS3 and the 360 over the 4 month period (Dec 1- End March) is now an "effective" 4 months plus 14 more weeks -- call it 3 months -- for a total of 7 months of "effective" time (because of the big sales over the holiday) then we would be looking at 800K/7 months or about 115K/month.  That would push the catch up timeline WAY out -- to the end of the generation or beyond...   Personally I don't agree as there is a holiday every year and both will increase or decrease proportionately.  Of course a bigger sample size is warrented, but this is all the historical data we have and for it not to apply one has to assume radical changes are ahead.  While there will be changes, they will tend to smooth each other out to some degree.

But.... then you go on and say you believe the PS3 will overtake the 360 in the Fall or Holidays of next year.  That's the opposite of what you are implying above...  That's your opinion, but what do you base it on?  To get there from here, 6.45 million MORE PS3s have to be sold that 360s.  Let's say May is our start month... May through End November for example... 19 months...  6.45/19... Roughly 340K consoles per month on average from here on out...  Do you really think there is going to be a sudden acceleration of PS3s in the very near term? (or conversely a sever decrease in 360s sold?)  What is the basis of your belief?