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zorg1000 said:

Here's another way to look at it

NES+Game & Watch

SNES+Gameboy(89-96)

N64+Gameboy(97-03)

GC+Gameboy Advance

Wii U+Nintendo 3DS

Each of these 5 generation have sold about 25 million in Japan give or take a few million.

Wii+Nintendo DS sold like 45 million, they are clearly an outlier and are not what we should base our standards on. No matter what way u want to split it, Nintendo is not in dire straits in Japan in any way, shape or form.

NES+G&W is 32.22

SNES/N64/GB are 55.18m, so a 27.59m average.

GC+GBA only 21m, but of course the GBA had a very short life and again, doing as well as the Gamecube isn't something to strive for.  As Iwata said "we shouldn't continue this business if our only target is to outsell GameCube."

3DS+Wii U is currently also at 21m.  It can probably make it to 25m eventually, but there is another factor not gone into.  That factor is that the console portion has continued to decrease.  Those 17.17 million SNESs accounted for 194.85m software units sold.  The 18.7m 3DS hasn't managed half of that.  The tie ratio is also lower than the DS at the same point in its life, but it has improved on the GBA.  Granted, just selling more console hardware in the current environment isn't the only answer.  Nintendo's home console tie ratios have dropped hard since the days of the NES/SNES.  They would need more than a Wii scenario, they'd need the kind of widespread software support that their pre N64 consoles had.