So Handheld Has No Future? GBA vs DS vs 3DS Analysis (Franchise Sales Comparison)

[zorg1000]

oniyide said:

zorg1000 said:

Because when a single generation is literally 3x as much as the previous (GBA-80m to DS/PSP-240m) it's clearly not the norm, I'm saying look at the full picture, not just one single data point.

GBA was on the market for 6 years, not 3.5 years.

If we are to exclude Nintendo DS (clear outlier) & Game & Watch (didn't have interchangeable cartridges) and take the average of the 3 Gameboy generations (54, 64, 81) than we get about 65 million on average for the Gameboy family which is right about what 3DS is set to sell.

None of the Gameboy generations were seen as having an uncertain future so why are handhelds now not seen as one despite selling similar numbers?

We literally only have seen one generation of decline, we have no idea if that decline will continue, it's just as possible that sales will stagnate or even rise. What if Nintendo finds the next Pokemon or Minecraft craze among kids?

What I'm saying is a 50-80 million install has a strong future, especially when u have games like 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart that are all capable of selling 10+ million per game.

DS released in 2004. 3 years after GBA, oh sure they might have kept selling it but lets be real GBA only got real support for those years prior to DS. 

not counting DS 3ds is still not going to do GBA numbers. especially if you believe the NX is going to be a portable then it really isnt going to. That is a decline. No matter how you want to spin it. 3ds aint doing 80mil. Now if you think selling 50mil is a good future then thats your opinion. declining or stagnating is not good IMHO it might be acceptable but not good.

Nope, GBA got great support from Nintendo in 2005 and decent support in 2006

2005

DK: King of Swing

Donkey Kong Country 3

Dr. Mario & Puzzle League

Dynasty Warriors Advance

Final Fantasy IV Advance

Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones

The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap

Mario Party Advance

Mario Tennis: Power Tour

Pokémon Emerald

WarioWare: Twisted!

Yoshi Topsy-Turvy

2006

Drill Dozer

Final Fantasy V Advance

Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Red Rescue Team

Tales of Phantasia

These are the Nintendo published titles for GBA in 2005 & 2006, it also got a redesign in the Gameboy Micro in September 2005 so GBA got a full 5 years of support.

Like I said it's one single point of decline, that doesn't prove in any way that it will continue.

The home console market is set to decline this gen compared to last gen, Wii+PS3+360=close to 280 million, this gen might only be 200 million, do home consoles not have a future?