What will the Xbox One sell in its lifetime?

[Welfare]

Ryng_Tolu said:

Welfare said:

Right now the Xbox One is significantly ahead of the PS3. In fact in month 16 (February 15), the Xbox One is at 6.62 million (rounded). In order for the PS3 to exceed that number, we have to go to PS3's 26 month on sale, which is December of 08. PS3 at that time is at 6.79 million (rounded). That's with two full holidays.

Xbox One doesn't need 7+ years to sell over 26 million in the US, and why do you think this will be the peak year? There is still the inevitable slim model + $299 price drop that will probably happen in 2016. For reference, when the 360 got that, it went from 194k in May to 452k in June and then 444k in July.

The price drop is nothing.

We have already see the pricedrop effect, 500$ VS 350$, and XBO is increase by a 7% compared to last year as for now. That is not looking good.

In March will also dropped because last year was Titanfall...

If a 150$ have almost not effect, why another pricedrop will be huge? The fact is that the hype for XBO is massive dropped. The sales are barely more than last year with a 150$ pricedrop... and is scary to think that if XBO was at 400$ (still 100$ pricedrop) it was withouth doubt dropped comparet to last year.

So, the price don't will help by a lot the XBO sales. Also, if we see the line up, Halo is the best sistem seller for XBOX, and Halo coming this year. With Forza, Rise of the Tomb Raider, and maybe a Gears collection too.

The 2016 line up as for now is Quantum Break and Gears 4... seem good, but 2015 line up > 2016 line up.

But yeah, the 2016 will be still nice for XBO... i expect a massive dropped by 2017, because i don't think that other sistem seller can move XBOX ONE, and because XBO will startin to become "hold"... and the XB720 released in 2018 will definitive stopped the XBO sales.

 

That is my prediction:

2013: 1,800,000

2014: 4,400,000

2015: 4,800,000

2016: 4,000,000

2017: 3,000,000

2018: 1,500,000

other smaller sales in 2019/2020... Yeah, i think that XBO will be just above 20,000,000 lifetime in the US.

Just what i think.

Well the price drop happened in the holidays, so the effect won't be as big as it would have been in a non holiday month.

I do agree March will be down. MS didn't have anything for this month.

I'm expecting the $299 price along with a new slim model in a non holiday month. As shown with the 360 and PS3, that causes big sale spikes in the launch month and huge holiday sales.

2016 will have Scalebound, Gears, Crackdown, Quantum Break, Phantom Dust, and more. 2016 is looking to be a pretty good year for MS 1st party games.

2018 is a bit early I think for a successor. I'd say holiday 2019, giving the Xbox One 1 more year of relevent sales.