Prediction: PS4 will sell 30 million units by September 30, 2015

[eva01beserk]

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

JustBeingReal said:

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

 Other than third parties we're getting Until Dawn and GoW3 boosts in Summer.  It all depends on price cuts of course.  MGS5 bundle at $350 would give them gangbusters in September and pricecut at Gamescom (even $50) would be cray cray

 

 

Tearaway Unfolded was said by Media Molecule to be coming in the summer too, so that should add to the summer boost.

We also have Fat Princess Adventures, Deep Down, Let it Die, Drawn To Death, Kill Strain & Ratchet & Clank that need to have release dates, those are all big studio games in one way or another.

There's also indies like Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, WiLD, Rime, Alienation, The Tomorrow Children and Shadow of the Beast which don't yet have release dates.

I don't expect all of these to come out before the end of September and some may be pushed back to 2016, but they're all PS4 exclusives and a decent chunk of them could get released by the deadline of this thread's sales prediction. Some of these games will probably be PS Plus titles, which could definitely move systems.

There's also timed exclusives like Hellblade and No Man's Sky which could make it out this year, along with console exclusives like The Vanishing of Ethan Carter, The Witness, Volume, Hollow Point, The Forest, Killing Floor 2, amongst others.

 

The list of games only coming to PS4 as a console and outright exclusives compared to last year is much bigger than 2014 was. 30M is definitely doable by the end of September, just based on the volume of games alone, if PS4 gets a price cut in June or July then it could shoot passed 30M early than September 30th, maybe even early September is feasible. It seems like a tall order, but PS4 has been beating the odds, with barely a fraction of the games that are coming over the next few months and it doesn't need to do 2M a month, every month to get there to hit 30M by September 30th, it just needs to average about 1.42 from the beginning of March to the deadline date to hit the mark. If the system gets a price cut in June or July down to $349/£299 then I think it's very likely to hit 30 million earlier than September 30th.

Japan also seems to be firmly on the rise compared to last year too, China sales figures aren't known yet, but they should also add to the momentum of the system. I guess we'll see in time though.

I wouldn't be surprised if many of them released in the Summer as well.  Sony has changed the unwritten rule about not releasing anything in the Summer ever since TLoU.  It did 7m after releasing in the summer and now they seem so unafraid to release things that even Rocksteady has lost that strange fear of Summer.  Sure people go outside more but there's plenty of time left for video games (especially for adults).  That will give them an opportunity to avoid the usual Summer laul because usually nothing releases for 3 months and they just assume sales will dip.  Now if they just maintain or stay close to April and May sales that'll be a big boost compared to past console trends.

I think Im expecting this. Think about it, summer is when there is the most time to play video games, even if there is more cash during the hollidays to buy them, people will buy cuz they can play them, but there hasent been much to play in the ummer before. But now I think sony and nintendo will capitalize on this. They both have many games anounced that have no release dates and said they would come this year. Nintendo already promised one game per month and I kind of belive them and sony will at least throw in their low tier games that cant fight with the big holliday heavy hitters. 

Im calling it now, this will be the best summer ever.