Putting aside my own preferences (can it launch with, like, three Zelda games? And also F-Zero and Fire Emblem and Metroid?) and looking at this logically, I think 3D Mario is a very strong candidate for a launch title for NX no matter what kind of console it is. The timing is just right. EAD Tokyo can pump out a new major game every 2-3 years. Galaxy 1 in 2007, Galaxy 2 in 2010, 3D Land in 2011, 3D World in 2013. That would put their next game in 2015-2016. It's not a stretch at all to say that Captain Toad and a couple of other minor projects may push that back to 2016-2017.
I'm also pretty confident that EAD Tokyo is working on one of Nintendo's first mobile games. This is a smaller project, not on the same scale as a 3D Mario game, so you wind up with something like 3D World in 2013, Captain Toad in 2014, mobile game in 2015-2016, NX Mario after that.
