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A real flop, like less than a million for each, would be a symptom that the industry is about to crash. Underperformance, for which I'd agree on your numbers, is semi likely for Zelda and Halo, and not very likely for Uncharted, though the release date will hurt Uncharted a bit. What would happen if they all underperformed like that? Well I imagine a lot of people would be very sad.