Here are some numbers for those interested:
Taking the average weekly WW hardware numbers from the second week in Jan until the end of March and using it as a baseline of sales for the rest of the year the Wii will never achieve 50% market share at that pace. It needs to sell about another 10k units a week on average at those paces to ever break 50%.
However, just going from the beginning of March until present its about 7.1k ahead of the pace it needs to eventually get a 50% market share. Unfortunately at this pace it will take about 398 weeks (aka about 7.65 years). So if its going to pass 50% it needs to increase sales relative to its overall competition.
If you want to play with the numbers and pacing of each console the formula is simple enough for anyone who remembers algebra and can do basic plug & chug:
W=your weekly sales pace estimate for the Wii
P=your weekly sales pace estimate for the PS3
X=your weekly sales pace estimate for the X360
Wii=current Wii LTD
PS3=current PS3 LTD
360=current X360 LTD
LTD=Sum of all console LTDs (right now its 54.8)=PS3+360+Wii
I=What you solve for and is the number of weeks it will take to hit 50% market share. Negative result means it will never happen.
Note that if you want to find out what it will take to get to 60% market share you would just change the 0.5 to 0.6 etc... maybe some of you are as obcessive as I am =)
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