With the Uncharted 4 delay, a PS4 for $299 later this year does not feel far off.

[binary solo]

Shadow1980 said:

binary solo said:

I wouldn't rule out the "better version of multiplats" element either. While it's clear the 6th gen was uninfluenced by this, I think the 7th gen made a thing of relative performance of multiplats with sites like Lens of Truth (where are they BTW?) and Digital Foundry.  Price, reputation and brand are probably the biggest factors but "which version looks best?" is part of it.

Possibly.

Nintendo is of course a very different beast. For Nintendo it is actually all about the exclusives. If Nintendo exclusives had a better general market appeal Nintendo would win every generation because people would say screw CoD I need to play ... but then because Nintendo's exclusives would be briging Cod fans to their console so CoD would be there too. But Nintnedo's exclusives are not in that position, so they are lagging instead of leading.

Nintendo has relied almost entirely on their own exclusives for the past two generations, but their exclusives alone can't support a system no matter how good they are. The Wii succeeded through its low price relative to the 360 & PS3, a gimmick that really clicked with gamers everywhere (and attracted a periphery demographic, though I'm still convinced they're a minority of Wii owners), and slick marketing which really sold the overall vision of the system as offering "new" ways to play games (motion controls have been around since at least the late 80s, but the Wii was the first time they were really done right). The Wii U didn't have the price advantage the Wii had, its gimmick is not resonating with anybody, and the marketing for the system was terrible. It has just as many great exclusive games as the Wii had, but as it lacks the strengths the Wii had, it doesn't appeal to anyone outside of core Nintendo fans.

Like I said, exclusives aren't as important as they used to be. Nintendo has one of two choices next generation: 1) continue with the Wii line and hope it gimmick is a good enough selling point to make their next console popular, or 2) make a conventional console with enough power to match the PS5 and draw in support from third parties. For four generations straight, Nintendo has made hardware design choices that turned off many third parties (either because of format like with the N64 & GC or because of insufficient power like with the Wii & Wii U), and so far only one of those four was a huge success. That's not a good track record. If I was Nintendo, I'd make a system third parties actually want to develop all their latest and greatest games for. GTA, Far Cry, Final Fantasy, etc. on the same system as Mario, Smash, Zelda, etc. Sounds like a winner in my book.

@ not bolded. How do you figure? If Wii mostly sold to gamers then we should expect gen 8 to achieve an install base roughly similar to gen 7. If gamers bought Wii+an HD console then they will do the same this gen, because Wii U certainly has the same level of appeal to gamers as Wii did. But when you look at the best selling software it is highly suggestive of a large proportion of "never were gamers before Wii". My own personal experience is that every person I know who bought a Wii had never owned a game console before and the only games they played on PC were the likes of Minesweeper. Every perwson I know who bought a PS3 or 360 had previously owned a console. But I do have one counterfactual anecdote in that one family I know bought a Wii for their youngest kid and the older kid got given a 360+Kinect for his birthday. The younger kid became a gamer, but the older kid was never a gamer and hasn't become one. So this gen the family has a Wii U only.

My opinion on the breakdown of Wii ownership is: ~20 million carry over from GC,  ~30 million former PS2 owners and primary PS3/360 owners buying Wii as a second console, ~50 million newbies. So 50/50 split I reckon. There might be more on the 2nd camp and less in the 3rd, but even if so the newbies are the plurality for Wii even if not the majority.