PS3 overtaking the (Dead) 360 Anytime soon? Not really...

[kn]

PDF said:

Mummelmann said:
Your assumption (as is everyone's lately) is that the PS3 will never increase the pace in which is catches up hardware wise, and that is the key to these calculations.
I personally expect the gap in weekly and monthly sales to widen every month throughout the year and next year, so in reality I think its fair to assume that the PS3 will catch the 360 in lt total sales somewhere around 1st or 2nd quarter of 09.
Steps or not, there is precious little MS can do (as we've clearly seen this gen) to maintain or elevate sales outside of NA and the PS3 is growing fiercely in these regions in addition to the NA market.
I believe that the 360 is nearing its sales peak, whereas the PS3 still has quite a climb ahead of it before the same peak is crested.

Exactly.

You cant use current % to calculate because they will change. If you used last year % between the ps3 and 360 you would have the 360 making a even bigger gap right now but it isnt. The PS3 is making th gap smaller. It is wrong to assume that the weekly % will stay the same because they wont.

 No, you can't count on the gap staying the same, hence a 4 month average to "smooth out" the differences.  I only used those 4 months because the PS3 was actually outselling the 360 and there were a couple of major events in there.  If I had more data, obviously I'd use it.  I assumed a 200K/month difference or 50K/week on average, based on the last 4 months becasue that is all the really hard evidence we currently have.  That data is apparently a tad optimistic this week as it looks like the final numbers, on a worldwide basis, will be around 35K or so -- or 140K for a 4 week month...