teigaga said:
Oh gosh, a new system in 2016 sounds like a mistake to be honest, its at least a year too early.
Problem with the WIi U is that Ninetendo weren't trying to compete with anyone. For whatever reason they thought they could replicated the Wii, a system which had no competition because it had a truly unique selling point and low entry price, meaning even if you had 360/PS3 you would still strongly consider getting a Wii, whereas PS3 and 360 were competing for the same audience and instead of one dominating like the PS2, the market was split 50/50. Unfortunately for Nintendo they didn't win their casual market with the gamepad, the Wii U isn't actually that cheap to be a throw away purchase and its not even an option for primary console amongst core gamers. I mean did anyone expect that the average 360/PS3 owner would commit the next 5 years of gaming to a system pretty much equal with what they've had at home for the prior 5 years? I don't think Nintendo could be so daft so we have to assume that Nintendo were trying to carve out their own niche, existing alongside PS4/X1 as opposed to competeing with them and stealing their audience.
Now Nintendo shouldn't launch in 2016 because they would be setting themselves up to compete directly with PS4/X1 which is crazy. You don't attack a competitor just as they're about to become their most powerfull; just as their price is about to hit that mass market adoption point, just as their software line up becomes its most compelling and amazing yet or just as their sales reach are about to reach their highest peak.
They need to position themselves as a successor to the PS4 not its competitor, the same way the 360 was a successor to the PS2. Let PS4 have its peak and be on the decline. Let its hardware truly show its age, let developers moan about how weak its hardware is and yearn for better hardware, let the core audience to fatigue and wane. The best predicament would be that multiplat comparison videos look night and day between the PS4 and Next Nintendo. To me that means fall 2017 launch at the earliest, because not only does the PS4 need to be on the decline but technology has to have moved on far enough for Ninetendo to offer a generational leap leap at $399.
The generational leap is where the Wii U failed in stealing of the PS4/X1 marketshare (outside of marketing and weak 1st party line up), Nintendo don't need to be as powerful as the PS5 or X2... PS2 was weaker then the Xbox/gamecube, the PS1 was weaker then the N64, everyone was sure the 360 was going to be a lot weaker then the PS3 the way sony were hyping the cell but that didn't stop 360 from gaining huge momentum in 2005/6. Nintendo simply need to be next gen in comparison to the generation before, just as PS1 was to the snes and PS2 to the PS1. Now if they manage that whilst also being early enough to have a year or 2 without any new competition they will do miles and could even become market leader in 9th gen. My doubts are that Nintendo won't know how to market in a way that appeals to a more core market, that they'll be afraid to sell a system for more the $299 and above that afraid to make a temporary loss on hardware.
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if you look at my first post on this matter, I think you'll find were are both saying the exact same thing.
2016 will be too early and 2017 will be too late. That's why I also said the best thing for Nintendo to do is ride out this gen and figure out whatever it needs to do to court third parties. Then launch with whoever is launching first for the 9th gen and make sure its at least similarly specced.
All the talks of coming early will do Nintendo no favours. They need to wait.
