Halo 5 in the US or Uncharted 4 globally, which will sell more first week?

[binary solo]

Insidb said:

binary solo said:

Are you just not bothering to read what I'm writing? How on earth did you get that interpretation from what I wrote?

Not sure if you saw this, but I am curious to hear your thoughts on how this factors in:

The simple counter to Halo's "install base immunity" would be to say that the Halo franchise is waning in popularity. Despite 3 titles being released over a 5 year period of X360 install base growth, no the FW sales stagnated and failed to grow. If we assume that that trend were to continue, it would be a linear decrease, every 3 years (to 2015). In essence, the X360 would have to grow at the rate it did from 07 to 10 and 10 to 12 from 12 to 15, just maintain the 2.4M FW Halo sales. i think it's safe to say that whatever console sales increases that would be necessary to secure those FW game sales has not happened (last gen is waning), but it is also safe to assume that the X1 install base is nowhere near what the X360 would have to be to secure 2.4M FW sales for Halo 5. If you oversimplify the math, it would take anout ~55-60M X1 users to maintain the trend. If you reapply those simple calculations, the X1 has sold 10% of the consoles necessary to hit 2.4M with Halo 5 in week 1 (It's on "pace" for 240,000 for week 1, using the formula.). Halo 5 will sell more than 250,000 copies FW in the US, but this shows that the signifigance of the historical sales data lends itself to smaller expected debut.

I did, but Halo popularity is only waning at the fringes among the "casual" end of the Halo market. And indeed you could argue that really only Halo 3 benefitted from that casual end of the market. All the other Halo entries have not substantially grown past the benchmark set by Halo2 on Xb og.

The core Halo fans (the 8.5 million who bought Halo 2) are still there. And they will all buy Halo 5. And 2.5-ish million of those ~8 million will buy Halo 5 week 1 in the USA. If Halo 5 is an actually disappointing game foir core Halo fans then yes perhaps the Halo franchise will see a serious decline. But if 343 is more or less able to meet Halo fan expectations then there is no reason why  Halo 5 and future main entries in the Halo franchise won't continue to sell in the 8 millions for as long as there is an Xbox console. 

It is very hard to guage the digital sales effect, but if we assume 10 million has been reached for Reach and Halo 4 physical+digital, then that represents only a 17% growth over Halo 2 on the back of a 350% growth in install base from gen 6 to gen 7. Which basically means no growth at all. Even the growth Halo 3 saw is not ver spectacular in the context of 360's final install base. But in context of the install base for 360 at the time it is a very good result. But also consider the fact that most of Halo's growth came from outside the USA. Halo's US fanbase has been very stable, and rather static, ever since Halo 2. So in the USA at least Halo has neother been on the increase or the decline. It has mostly retained its core fanbase. This all points to the install base, particularly for the USA, being irrelevant for Halo. And it also points to the likelihood that Halo 5 in the USA > Uncharted globally for week 1.

LTD is a somewhat different beast, and it might be dangerous to put money on which one will end up selling best. If there are a lot of people who have converted from 360 to PS4 and they are not tempted back by Halo, then that might bring in a whole new crowd of Uncharted buyers. But they are unlikely to be week 1 buyers if they've never played before. That's why I think at this E3 Sony would be making a pretty smart move by announcing the release of the Uncharted remaster trilogy for PS4. MS has preped the Halo ground with MCC, and if Sony truly sees Uncharted as a flagship franchise they would certainly be justified in giving UC the MCC treatment: Uncharted NDC.