Which Console will hit WW % first?

[azrm2k]

For the PS3 to hit 25 it would have to outsell the 360 considerably to take away from its' marketshare or even just slightly beat it to chip away at it and hope Wii sales slow down.

For the Wii to hit 50 it would have to outsell the PS3 + 360 combined considerably.

I don't see either happening for quite some time. Which one will happen first?

At this point i'd have to say I figure Wii will hit 50% first. I'm expecting supply to be increased so Nintendo should start outselling the HD consoles combined on a more consistent basis and I figure WiiFit will help keep demand high in NA and possibly make it supply constrained again in Others temporarily.

PS3 has been outselling 360 for some time now but the margin isn't massive enough yet and I figure eventually before MS loses significantly more marketshare they'll start being more aggressive with a NA price cut. So even if PS3 hits 25% I don't see it happening for quite some time. I'm guessing the Wii hits 50% by the end of 2008 or early 2009 and then for the PS3 to hit 25% it has to outsell the 360 LTD which probably won't happen till much later in 09 at the earliest.