Can the PS4 really outsell the PS2?

[Ryng]

Dr.Vita said:

Ryng_Tolu said:

PS4 is NOW at 50% of market, but you think that the trend will be this forever?

I think that PS4 will have 2/3 of  total market (66%)

PS4: 100M

XBO: 32M

WiiU: 18M

This would be 75% marketshare, wouldn't it?
And Xbox One seems low imo, it did already 10M after the first year and this year and the next years could be even bigger if Microsoft continues with these price cuts.

150,000,000 divided 100 = 1,500,000 X 66.6 = 99,900,000 (around 100m)

 

For the XBO: even if this year will be bigger (i think so), it don't will have a massive increase, probabily 5% max 10% compared to last year, (for a comparation, XBOX is increased by 4%, and XB360 by 10%)... Considering that XBO have sold 7,500,000 in 2014 (and not 8m, VGC overtracked and we know...) i predict 7,900,000 XBO this year.

After 2015, the sales will dropped like a rock, because XBO will be around 200$ or 250$, and MS don't can make another price cut, the sistem seller (Halo, Quantum Break, Forza) will be aleady coming, the only game that will sell more XBO will be Gears, but not as Halo and the stuf Forza+QB+Tomb Raider ...

I think that XBO will sell 6,300,000 ( -20% dropped 2015 to 2016), in 2017 even worst, 4,500,000 ( -30% dropped ), and after, in 2018 will coming the new XBOX, and it will eat all XBO sales...

So, i'm gonna to say:

2013: 3m

2014: 7.5m

2015: 7.9m

2016: 6.3m

2017: 4.5m

2018: 2.2m

TOT: 31.5m... other 500k or 1M in 2019+2020, and XBO will be discontinued.

This is my prediction.