PS4 v Wii U lifetime Japan sales.

[DonFerrari]

Materia-Blade said:

sc94597 said:

Why? Both average at about 20-22k weekly including launches and holiday sales, and here are the last six weeks of PS4 vs. Wii U sales that Vgchartz has. 

Wii U                  PS4

46,565                  31,966

36,585                 39,240

12,054                 18,055

9,405                  14,314

7,321                   12,526

6,817                  15,856

AVG               AVG

19,791          21,992

And the lifetime averages

PS4

1,052,863/49 = 21,487

Wii U

2,206,968/(104 +3 +4) = 19,882

The Wii U sold 1,579,424 by the end of 2013 (a month and a half before the PS4 released.) That would take 73 weeks for the PS4 to catch up, after a discontinued Wii U, if they both remain the same in Japan on average for their lifetimes (PS4 only gains 52k per year over Wii U with its current sales so subtract that from how many years you think they'll be on the market together to get the real number of weeks.) 

So the PS4 must sell at about 20k per week in Japan a year or so after the Wii U is discontinued entirely there. 

Overall their sales are comparable and the PS4 needs to catch up to Wii U for Wii U's head start. The only way it can do that is if it either lives much longer than Wii U in Japan, which is possible but not super likely, or it gets a game which will boost its sales dramatically (main series Dragon Quest.) 

Otherwise, anything goes. 

Let's not forget it has to outsell wii u consistently, something that won't happen due to wii u's releases, pricecuts, bundles and holidays.

If I had to guess you also expected WiiU to keep outselling X1 and that MK8 + SSBU would make Nintendo skyrocket.