Potential marketshare: Small. Unless they start selling an already-made PC with the OS on it (or a SteamBox console), very few people is going to abandon Windows for it, specially if they use their PC to work.
How big a threat to Microsoft. None. Windows is still the most used OS by a lot. Big developers won't take their chances with a Steam OS.
Would people buy into it apart from about 10 million hardcore steam users? No.
Do Microsoft even care? No. People isn't going to suddenly abandon Windows.
Would they charge for the OS? They don't charge for Steam, why would they charge for the OS? If they charge for the OS, they wouldn't have any way to compete against Windows.
Would Microsoft launch a rival steam on Windows? No. There are already a lot of digital services on PC. They should have started years abo, before Steam was popular and Microsoft utterly dominated the technology world.
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