RolStoppable said:
Man, the big decline will be stopped because they can't go all that much lower anymore. |
Are sure about that? Seems like the line keeps getting drawn and smartphones continue to eat audience regardless.
The 3DS started from "well it's gonna sell 150 million, Nintendo's got this".
That then became "well, maybe 120 million, the launch was slow".
That then became "well ok, they get to 100 million, even the GBA would've hit 100 million with a full 5+ years"
Then that became "well 85+ million for sure, no way it doesn't outsell the PSP, Pokemon will cause sales to skyrocket!"
And now we're down to "maybe they can hit 75 million if this 3DS revision takes off".
Maybe there is a bottom and this just magically ceases to be a problem for Nintendo next-generation, but its very possible that mobile gaming is a cancer that isn't going to stop until it carves the handheld business into something unsustainable.
The problem is these smart devices are getting kids to think of portable gaming as something that should be free or $1 at most. You have a whole generation of kids thinking that's how things should be. That's a problem.
Between the 3DS and Vita, there's going to be about 140-150 million fewer handhelds sold this cycle. Whereas smart phone sales and adoption is accelerating. If it chips away another say 30 million even next cycle, Nintendo is getting into a danger zone.
