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WIthout official announcements about Vita sales its all guesses.
The two interesting poiunts are, Sony hasnt yet announced 10m Vita sold through, so it is likely it did not happen.
Sony as well still counts PSP and Vita together, and the old PSP was still on sales until recently.

If anyone takes wishful thinking aside, Vita is not selling good. It is likely not 'massively' undertracked though probably slightly undertracked.

Everyone hoping that Vita sales will explode with China as a new market, i dont believe that either. Most people over there will likely play on their Smartphones or buy a gaming tablet with cheap games that likely fit better to chinese tastes.

Setting one device that barely sells against another one that doesnt sell just shows how hopeless the situation has gone.