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If the Wii U averages about 11k more per week than it did last year, then that would mean a cumulative increase in sales of 572k. That means it might sell around 4.3 Mil this year, if the holiday isn't a big one.That'll means 13 mil lifetime by the end of the year. That is all with a very conservative estimate of only 11k /per week more. I'm sure some weeks the difference will be much greater, and not so many weeks in which it is less.

Then let's say it sells 3.5 mil (2016), 1.5 mil (2017), and 1.5 mil (rest of life) after that. That leaves a lifetime of 19.5 million sales. Not too bad for a low estimate. Either way the people who predicted 15 mil lifetime are going to be wrong.