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I think it will easily win the USA by the end of the gen. I know MS is making a small push here but they can't do anything consistently I don't think. This year Sony has more exclusives than MS and third party games help them more so all the big releases will help them more than MS. I imagine Sony will win a majority of the NPDs and MS will sneak a couple wins at the end of the year. Globally MS might as well just accept second place.