Last year has shown that winning November and December is not enough to make up for the deficit built up from the first 10 months. PS4's 2014 lineup wasn't particularly great (though it wasn't bad either).
This year, it gets to start off strongly with The Order: 1886, Bloodborne, MLB 15: The Show, Toukiden Kiwami, and Omega Quintet. Other games such as Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD, Tearaway Unfolded, and Ratchet & Clank Redux may find their way into the first half of this year, too. The PS4 should have much better Q1 and Q2 sales than last year.
Another huge factor is that the PS4 doesn't have a proper price cut yet. There are signs that point out that it will happen this year. One is that this is the PS4's second full calendar year. The other is Samsung's recent mass production of the 8 gigabit GDDR5 RAM chips. The huge question is how much of a price cut the PS4 will have.
I think the X1 will still win the holiday season, but it won't outsell the PS4 as much as it did last year. I believe Sony will be much better prepared coming into November and will offer a bunch of nice deals to maintain consumer interest.
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