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theprof00 said:

Basics:
First six months of 2016, xb1 is easily capable of outselling by 50%. This past year was more than 1.7m to less than 1m
in the first 6 months.

So the question really is whether it can hit double wiiU numbers by year end +margin of a few hundred thousand units.
I don't see MS selling more than 12m this year (50% increase)...in fact I don't think they even have the production ability to sell that many.
But I also don't see wiiU selling less than 3m (25% decrease)
This would bring the totals to 23m vs 11.8

In the end though, the sign really is whether wiiU will have a price drop or not. Because with or without price drop on MS side, xb1 selling 12m is very doubtful...on top of which I don't think any console has ever increased by 50% in the second full year.

EDIT: So, this question really boils down to a question about whether wiiU will have a price drop or not. All the double sales talk is just filler. The bet will be over when Nintendo announces a price drop, probably coinciding with new handheld hardware announcement at e3, with presumably, the ability to interact with the wiiU.

Just to add to your post, it's rumoured nintendo are still sell at a loss so a price drop might not even happen.