theprof00 said:
Basics: First six months of 2016, xb1 is easily capable of outselling by 50%. This past year was more than 1.7m to less than 1m in the first 6 months.
So the question really is whether it can hit double wiiU numbers by year end +margin of a few hundred thousand units. I don't see MS selling more than 12m this year (50% increase)...in fact I don't think they even have the production ability to sell that many. But I also don't see wiiU selling less than 3m (25% decrease) This would bring the totals to 23m vs 11.8
In the end though, the sign really is whether wiiU will have a price drop or not. Because with or without price drop on MS side, xb1 selling 12m is very doubtful...on top of which I don't think any console has ever increased by 50% in the second full year.
EDIT: So, this question really boils down to a question about whether wiiU will have a price drop or not. All the double sales talk is just filler. The bet will be over when Nintendo announces a price drop, probably coinciding with new handheld hardware announcement at e3, with presumably, the ability to interact with the wiiU.
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Just to add to your post, it's rumoured nintendo are still sell at a loss so a price drop might not even happen.