When I ask myself "how many copies will Majora's Mask sell?" I can practically hear how most people will think out the answer. It goes something like this (using ballpark math).
Ocarina (N64) sold about 7.5 million. Majora and Ocarina 3D each sold a little more than 3. Therefore Majora has half the selling power of Ocarina and remakes have half the selling power of original games. 7.5 million/ 4 = 1.5 million, give or take.
I think this is dead wrong and neglects most of what makes Majora a fan favorite to begin with.
Most Zelda communities I have been around and most of the commenters on articles are split on which of the two is the better game. It varies wildly from place to place, but if you pressed me to a number, I would say that the Zelda community as a whole is 60-40 in favor of Ocarina. But there are key reasons to think the 40% in favor of Majora's Mask will be much more loyal to it because subsequent Zelda games have been much closer to Ocarina's formula.
Why do I need to buy another version of Ocarina when I have Twilight Princess, which follows its formula reasonably closely?
Yeah, you really can't make that argument with Majora.
It goes deeper, too. If you look back at the old archives for online Zelda forums for discussions on which Zelda game is the greatest, there is a consistent trend. Majora's Mask was rarely listed as anyone's favorite until after Wind Waker was released, and the "Majora's Mask is one of the best games ever made" line didn't get popular until 2005 and later and even then it didn't have a lot of inertia. Majora's Mask's popularity is a reasonably recent phenomenon. Certainly much moreso than its original sales.
There could be any number of reasons for this, from the internet sparking fan discussion to illegal emulators exposing new players to the game, but the most likely reason is that the fan community grew up and their tastes changed.
This is one of those changes Nintendo hasn't taken gracefully to: since 2000 the average gamer age has shot up to almost 30. Ocarina is famous for being one of the few games of the first 3D generation which has aged well--meaning you can replay it now and more modern games with prettier graphics and better gameplay won't spoil the experience. Majora has that as well, in part because it shares assets and an engine with Ocarina, but that's not all. Majora's Mask is the only game I have played which handles both a mature and a young audience well--although I think it handles the mature end better. In a word, Ocarina may have aged gracefully, but Majora has matured.
At the end of the day I think Majora's Mask 3D will sell better than Ocarina 3D because Majora's Mask--unlike Ocarina and even Wind Waker HD--has a reason to need a remake. It's not a filler title.
