Call it a cumulative failure, or call it a systematic failure. Many factors are strangling the PS3 in Japan. The lack of backwards compatibility is one of them. So the original poster is marginally correct. The existence of a backwards compatible model in the market would help sales if only marginally. Perhaps it is the final straw for consumers, but we will probably never know.
What we do know is that the PS3 despite all of the improvements of the past year is actually performing worse year to year at this point. This a direct connection of disenchantment of the gaming public with the product. Nothing could or probably would change this at this point or in the future. The console is now effectively shunned, and as we have learned from the 360 once shunned all you see are meager victories.
The majority of consumers generate a perspective on a console, and from that point on it is ingrained in their psyche. Further more most consumers will not purchase a console for one or two games. The overwhelming majority of them are simply not that stupid. Otherwise they would buy all consoles every generation.
You can refer to it as the wonder weapon fallacy. The notion that cumulative screw ups can and will be overlooked at a later date. When you talk about a lack of new games hurting sales. You must also concede that these consumers not buying are also seeing the lack of games.
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