The game has more awareness but is still a very niche release. I think it's there to get more core Nintendo fans to upgrade to the New 3DS, so I think 500k this year. I own a copy of the Wii Xenoblade and don't know yet if I'll double dip.
In a similar vein I think we'll see Pokemon Z or Pokemon Yellow launch later this year for New 3DS, to get more mainstream consumers to upgrade.