Blood_Tears said:
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Two things happened that I stupidly overlooked.
1.) People on message boards and the internet do NOT make up the majority of sales. The Madden, Titanfall, COD and Halo crowd do. I always knew this, but somewhere along the line, probably due to overlooking my next point, I forgot all about it.
2.) Last generation owners did not upgrade in large numbers last year. Most US 360 owners waited until this holiday to come out of the woodwork and buy Xbox Ones. I didn't see that coming because... well, I don't know why. For some stupid reason, I assumed that people flock in the direction they're going to flock right out of the gates which was dumb.
The Xbox One was overpriced when it came out. I think what happened was that the average 360 consumer saw this, held back and decided to wait until it came down in price. When that happened, they bit. Now that it's pretty much going to stay $349.99, I predict a steady upgrading process in the US. The PS4 is going to do much better than the PS3, but not enough to hold ground.