Well I think they will learn their lesson if their $600 launch price doesn't work out. Seeing as how they lost a bunch of money on each system they will have to catch up a lot. I wish, if they really did buy exclusives, that they would continue to do so because it seems that would be cheaper than losing to Microsoft in America, potentially. I wonder how much it cost M$ for GTA4 on the same day as the PS3...I think if GTA was still exclusive the PS3 would be a lock for #1 this generation (yes, I think the Wii will fade and the PS3 will last longer, but we'll see).
Even then, though, I'm not sure how much money they'll make. I agree with you that Sony will rethink their strategy for the following generations. As a gamer I love their current hardware decisions but if they dominated 2 generations like no company ever has and still only made a few billion, I do worry.