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Around 5m.

I'd say for any first home console Zelda, you can count on around 5m. I hope it does better of course, and gets over at least 6m. The game seems to have almost exclusively positive buzz right now, for the first time since Twilight Princess, so there's hope. Still waiting for that Zelda game that finally breaks 10m.

And yes, Skyward Sword is most definitely undertracked, too bad Nintendo never announced numbers after that original 3.46m.