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Soundwave said:

Hate to say it but I think the console business has basically passed Nintendo by. They won't be a big player on the console side ever again, they just don't have the marketing/demographic know how and are too far out of touch with the majority of the Western consumers and developers, being a company pretty much run entirely by 60-70 year old Japanese men. There is no Japanese console business anymore outside of whatever niche the PS4 can carve out. 

Their next "console" will probably just be a low-cost mini-console that is basically just their next-gen handheld chip that runs on TV at a higher resolution. It will play the same games as the handheld. Like the Vita TV (except VitaTV runs at the same low-res as the Vita). Probably with some new controller gizmo designed by Miyamoto and co. which will be low-cost.

Such a proposition will be cheap and low risk, so it can find "success" even if it only sells 20 million units on top of the handheld selling 50-60 mill (on the low end). 

I think their play in the future is to become more of a media/toy company utilizing their IP in other ways to get kids hooked on their brand at an early age. Like say a Mario CG movie for example, more animated series' for other Nintendo properties and expansion of the Amiibo toy brand would probably be a good way for them to go.

I hate to admitted,  but your theory is close to reality and actually the most safest way for Nintendo if they want to stay in gaming Industry but with that way they will not able  to cover their audience. But if they want to competing head on head with PS and Xbox they have to use all of their assets, money, and human resource and will likely have more risk loosing their company.