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Captain Toad is very likely low budget and as well should sell very long. It will likely hit 1 million in the long run and make money.
Don't think Nintendo expected differently.

Watch Hogs U can easily explained as plain stupid. Funny thing, german Media Markt put it in stock just two weeks before christmas. Coming a half year after the other versions, being no good port mand at full price that game was doomed to not sell.
Who should actually buy that? Die hard Nintendo only fans desperately waiting for 'mature' games maybe.

So we have Lego Batman 3, according to VGC selling better on Wii U than on PS4One, and Sonic Doom, really badly reviewed. And Lego Batman 3 looks like it will do as well as Marvel Super Heroes.