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I don't see it under 40k,there is a momentum from mario kart 8 and smash despite some trying to downplay that!
New and unannounced games are coming that won't make miracles,(well zelda could make one in USA,they love it there)but will prevent a sharp drop!55k-65k is my answer(without a price cut) but I could see it doing 40k-45k if it faces droughts!