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Insidb on 01 January 2015
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Welfare said:
Insidb said:
Based upon last month's Amazon rankings, we should expect 2 things:

1) Another X1 win.
2) A smaller margin of victory.

Isn't that what we all predicted (because the PS4 price never dropped)?


How'd you come to the conclusion for #2? November had more PS4 skus than this month in the top 100, and the gap for NPD was atleast 400k. Following that logic, the gap should be bigger.

I went off of this simple logic:

November: X1 at 2, 82, and 100 & PS4 at 31, 48, and 79

December: X1 at 1 & PS4 at 15

While the X1 and PS4 had a lot more SKUs in November, all except 2 basically fell in the bottom 50 (I know that 48 comes before 50 lol). Similarly, in that month, all PS4 SKUs fell int he bottom 70, and X1 dominated at 2. In December, the X1 and PS4 were both in the top 15 with only a 14 spot margin. If you assume uniform distibrutions for both months, the PS4 won November by a significant margin (70+53+22=145 vs. 99+19+1=119), and the X1 won December by a smaller margin 100 vs 86). Since we know that the former didn't actually happen, the fall off from spot to spot is non-linear. Consequently, by virtue of the X1 and PS4 being much more closely situated at much higher positions this month, I'd expect a smaller margin of victory for the X1.